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Last Updated: 11:12 PM GMT on Maart 09, 2010
— Last Comment: 04:12 PM GMT on Maart 13, 2010
If you read no further, please at least watch this home video taken yesterday. It just might make you chuckle. An Oklahoma Classic.
Hammon Tornado
The two words don't belong in the same sentence-forecast and tornado. Only severe thunderstorm and tornado POTENTIAL can be forecast. Severe thunderstorms may be more predictable, in the sense of atmospheric factors being in place, but to say where a severe storm will form, how bad it will be in a specific location or when it will spawn a tornado seems to me kind of like predicting when a semi might jackknife in front of you on a roadway. If you can see a big truck through your windshield, the potential exists, but that doesn't mean an accident will happen.
Yesterday in far Western Oklahoma a twister that observers say became an EF2-3 formed near Elk City. Trained spotters and chasers reported the twister grew to as wide as 300 yards during its 45 minute life as it traveled north through Roger Mills County. So far the only damage reports have come from Hammon, OK, a town of about 500 residents where five homes and a county road barn were destroyed, and a dozen or more homes suffered damage. No reports, so far, of human injuries. Meteorologists from Norman are at the scene today to survey damages. Further official information about this weather event will be issued after today's assessment.
No one "forecast" this tornado. It happened. And it happened with maybe 25 minutes warning to the citizens of Hammon. That's how tornadoes behave. They strike with little warning. Twenty-five minutes, that's more than the usual advance warning when your talking tornado.
NWS Norman had mentioned potential severe in front of the "dry slot" for a couple days, and had been watching for potential severe out of this weather system from the moment it became a twinkle in its Daddy's eye.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN DRY-SLOT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NEAR MODEST DRY LINE. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED TYPE SUPERCELLS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ~Norman NWS Forecast Discussion March 7 244pm CST
By the Monday, March 8 at 332 PM CST Discussion, well, they were close.
AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE CONNECTED TO THIS SURFACE LOW HAS SURGED EASTWARD IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE... AND IN THE LUBBOCK AREA.
COOLING WILL OCCUR ALOFT THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A CONCURRENT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST OK EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THAN IN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH.
In the Convective Outlook, mets at the SPC posted a slight risk area for severe weather on March 8 that included Roger Mills County, OK. They issued a Mesoscale Discussion at 4:46 p.m. CST, roughly half an hour before observers spotted the tornado on the ground.

A Tornado Warning was issued by NWS Norman at 5:29 p.m.
Gary England, chief meteorologist at KWTV, Oklahoma City, mentions the lack of radar presentation as he interviews experienced storm spotters who were on the scene. Includes tornado video.
Link, if you prefer
Radar. I was among those not watching. I scrounged up a little in radar archives. Anyone who has better images or wants to find some, please post them in comments.
Hammon, OK location

Can't see a whole lot on the WU 24 hour loop. In this case, the third pass is the charm.
Perused the Plymouth State Weather Center (Thank you.) archives and can't see a darn thing on SRV. Here are a couple stills of Nexrad composite.
5:15 p.m. CST

5:53 p.m. CST

Another video of the twister, as Mike Morgan, KFOR TV met, interviews a spotter who determined the tornado was on the ground near Elk City about 5:15 pm.
Link, if you prefer
A tornado cannot be predicted. The severe weather meteorologists in Norman, God bless them, are the best we've got, and they didn't see this one coming till it was on the ground. If you live in Tornado Alley, 'tis the Season. Keep your eyes on the sky and your weather radio tuned.
Resources: Be Prepared for Severe Weather
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Updated: 11:12 PM GMT on Maart 09, 2010
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March 1, 2010From Norman NWS, just for the "record.":)Snowiest Winter on Record in Wichita Falls; 6th Snowiest in Oklahoma CityChristmas Eve BlizzardJanuary 28-29, 2010 (Ice) StormFebruary 23, 2010Dusting of snow this morning-gone by 9 a.m. The fronts rolling in bring less sustained cold with each pass. This blog will be closed for a while. Will leave the OK WX links here in case anyone wants to take a peek now and then.Oklahoma MesonetCopyright 2010 Board of Regent...
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My Dad said this was the greatest song ever written. I think he was right.StardustMusic-Hoagy CarmichaelLyrics-Mitchell ParrishPerformed by Harry Connick, Jr.Image credit: LIFE magazineEducational, non-commercial use permitted.This blog will be closed for a while. Will leave the links here in case anyone besides me wants to peek at them now and then.Oklahoma MesonetCopyright 2010 Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma.Please click the NWS Norman Homepage lin...
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WhoooHooo Dat SAINTS!Oklahoma MesonetCopyright 2010 Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma.Please click the NWS Norman Homepage link for point forecast and latest NWS advisory information.Norman Forecast DiscussionNorman (OKC) radarFrederick, OK radarDallas-Ft. Worth radar
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Updated: 08:27 PM GMT on Februarie 08, 2010
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Geaux SAINTS!Oklahoma MesonetCopyright 2010 Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma.Please click the NWS Norman Homepage link for point forecast and latest NWS advisory information.Norman Forecast DiscussionNorman (OKC) radarFrederick, OK radarDallas-Ft. Worth radarFeb 1, 2010 2:18 pm CDTOh, Wow. Felt that special energy around, especially Friday night. I am overwhelmed by your kind posts and by my own thoughts of this storm. Turned out to be everything adver...
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Updated: 04:53 PM GMT on Februarie 03, 2010
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And forget not that the Earth delights to feel your bare feet and the winds long to play with your hair.
~Kahlil Gibran
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Barefootontherocks's Wunder Photos
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Duncan, OK
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| Elevation: |
1132 ft
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| Temperatuur: |
53.1 °F
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| Dou-punt: |
43.6 °F
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| Humiditeit: |
70% |
| Wind: |
NNO
per
13.0 mph
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| Wind Stof: |
13.0 mph
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| Updated: 07:00 PM CDT on Maart 15, 2010 |
| PWS Owner: KOKDUNCA9 — Station History |
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Copyright © 2010 Weather Underground, Inc.
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